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Sunday, 01 August 2010
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The Real Poker Math

Most poker players know the common odds: 34% when four-to-the-flush on the flop. 32% on an open-ended straight on the flop. 19% for the flush after the turn and 17% for the straight after the turn. 51% to 49% when all-in pre-flop with a pair vs two off-suited over cards. Roughly 83% when all-in pre-flop with a bigger pair than the opponent.

That’s great, but do most poker players realize what the most important stat really is? It’s something most of them don’t even keep track of. It’s their return! Whether you’re playing live poker, online poker, ring games, or poker tournaments, poker should be treated as a business. Those who do have a huge advantage. They always know where they’re at. And if they’re smart, they also know how to minimize their losses and maximize their gains.

You don’t need to go poker school to understand one basic concept: If you cut your losses at a certain point and let the wins ramp up, you’re going to make money. Of course, it would be wise to learn poker first, and in most cases this refers to the popular game of Texas Hold em. Once you do learn, here’s a tip for all you 1/2 cash game players out there: Always buy-in for $200 or $300 (depending on the max buy-in). NEVER re-buy! Go home and play the next day/session. Keep track of every win and loss and always calculate what games you do best (and worst) in.

The basic principles of math while you’re sitting at the poker table are valuable; however, there are so many variables that come in to play. Is your opponent a tight or loose player? Is he on tilt? Are his chips stacked neatly (tight player) or messy (gambler/loose player)? What position are you in? Do you have to act first on the next street or will you get to see what he does first? These are factors that must be taken into consideration before making a key decision.

If you can combine your reading ability, basic math, patience, and record-keeping skills, you’ll be on your way to being a consistent winner.

All I can say from here is: Good luck on the felt!

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